MARIE, DANCING by Carolyn Meyer

Carolyn Meyer, Marie, Dancing (Gulliver Books, Harcourt, Inc., 2005). Unabridged recording read by Carine Montbertrand (Recorded Books, 2007).

(NOVEL)

Recommended by Wilda Morris

Dancing is the one thing that bring joy to fourteen-year-old Marie van Goethem, who studies at the dance school of the Paris Opera. But as her father lies dying, he asks Marie to promise to hold the family together. He tells her that her mother is too weak to do so, and her older sister is too selfish. Her father is especially concerned that the needs of Marie’s little sister be met. Marie’s mother succumbs to “the serpent with the green eyes,” a highly-addicting alcoholic beverage.

When the artist Edgar Degas asks Marie to pose in his art studio, Marie accepts because the extra income will help buy food. Instead of another painting, she learns, Degas is making sketches on which to base a sculpture. She does not want to pose nude, but Degas will pay more if she agrees to do so. It is not an easy decision for her.

What options are available to Marie in the Paris of the 1870s and 1880s? Will she accomplish her dream of dancing solo roles with the Paris Opera? Will she become the mistress of an abonné, as many of the dancers do? Will she find true love? Will she be able to prevent Charlotte from making the same bad decisions their their older sister Antoinette made? Will she be able to keep her promise to her father, and if so, what sacrifices will be required?

Carolyn Meyer became enthralled with Degas’ statue, “Little Dancer, Age 14.” She read books about Degas, frequented ballet studies, and went to Paris to do research for this book.

I enjoyed the Recorded Books version of Marie, Dancing. Marie van Goethem was a real person, as were her sisters (and of course Degas and the Cassatt sisters). Meyer researched the Paris Opera, Degas, and life in Paris during the late 1800s, then used her imagination to fill in the gaps. She has turned Marie’s story into a compelling novel. It is considered a “young adult novel,” but this "senior" adult enjoyed it very much.

THE BURGESS BOYS by Elizabeth Strout

Elizabeth Strout, The Burgess Boys (New York:  Random House, 2013), 320 pages.

Also available on Kindle, Nook, and audiobook.

Recommended by Sue Dayton

The Burgess Boys is a novel written by Elizabeth Strout who won a Pulitzer Prize in 2009 for her short story collection Olive Kitteridge. 

The Burgess Boys is about two brothers, Jim and Bob Burgess, and their sister Susan.  It takes place in New York City and in the small town of Shirley Falls, Maine, where the three siblings grew up and where Susan now lives.  Jim and Bob, both lawyers, have an unusual and contentious relationship.  This is in part because of the death of their father when they were children; a death that may have been caused by one of the children. The brothers live in New York City and as adults have had minimal contact with Susan.  However, when Susan’s teenage son gets in trouble for what may be a hate crime (based on an actual incident) against the Somali population in Shirley Falls the brothers return to their hometown to be of legal and family support to their sister. The family tension and the haunting memories of their childhood come to the surface as the book unfolds.

Elizabeth Strout is an amazing storyteller. She has an ability to weave together family, social and political issues into a great story.  I had the opportunity to hear Strout read from this book and talk about writing it.  I enjoyed The Burgess Boys and Olive Kitteridge very much and I want to read her first two novels Abide with Me and Amy and Isabelle.

PREDICTING THE NEXT PRESIDENT: THE KEYS TO THE WHITE HOUSE 2012 by Allan J. Lickhtman

Allan J. Lichtman, Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2012 (Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc., 2012).

Also available on Kindle and Nook.

The title of the 2008 edition is The Keys to the White House: A Sure Fire Way of Predicting the Next President.

(NONFICTION)

Recommended by Wilda Morris

Ignore all the polls. They won’t tell you anything meaningful about the outcome of the popular vote for president. That’s the word from Allan J. Lichtman who studied all the elections from 1860 to 1992 and, with the help of statistician Vladimir Keilis-Borok, came up with 13 keys which correctly predicted the outcome of the popular vote in each of the five elections since. [Ken Decell co-wrote the first edition; the later split between Lichtman and Decell is described by Martin Gottlieb in his book, Campaigns Don’t Matter: How the Media Get American Politics All Wrong (iUniverse, 2006).]   By 2010, Lichtman was confident that Barak Obama would win the popular vote in 2012. And of course, he was correct. In 1988, when George H. W. Bush was trailing Mike Dukakis in the polls by 20%, and the pundits believed the Democrat would win, Lichtman correctly called the election for Bush. Polling data is ignored in Lichtman’s predictive system.

The keys, he says, do not predict the Electoral College vote, so he cannot be 100% sure about who will actually win the election. (This means that the title of the 2008 edition is overstated.) “The fact that the outcome of every election is predictable without reference to issues, ideology, party loyalties, or campaign events allows us reasonably to conclude that many of the factors most commonly cited in explaining election results count for very little on Election Day,” according to Lichtman (p. 5).  When five or fewer of the thirteen keys go against incumbent party, its candidate will win the popular vote. If six or more go against the incumbent party, it will lose.

Four of the keys are “political keys” gauging the strength of the incumbent party, such as the results of the previous midterm election and whether the incumbent president has serious opposition for the nomination. Keys 5-11 are “performance keys, measurements of achievements and failures of the president in power. This includes the condition of the economy, effectiveness in making policy changes, scandal of certain kinds which are recognized as serious across party lines, and success or failure in foreign policy or military affairs. The last two keys relate to the charisma of the candidates themselves.

I confess that before I read anything else, I went to the last chapter and read Lichtman’s prediction for the 2012 election. Yep, he got it right.

Lichtman is Distinguished Professor of History at American University (my alma mater). Unfortunately he was not on the faculty during my days as a student there. I heard him briefly on the radio after the 2012 election. He compared these keys to shifting in tectonic plates – which is a better predictor of earthquakes than anything visible on the surface. In other words, they have a predictive power not evident in presidential polling.